Purdue
Which Blough show?
In his first full season as the starter, sophomore quarterback David Blough has been unpredictable, showing flashes of exceptional play that would put him among the best in the conference, mixed with games in which one bad decision seems to lead to more and more.
Given their defensive weaknesses, the Boilermakers best chance of beating the Badgers is in a shootout, and the performance of their quarterback will be an important part of that.
If Blough can produce a performance like the ones he turned in against Iowa and Minnesota—458 yards and five touchdowns, 391 yards and four touchdowns, respectively—the Boilermakers have a puncher’s chance to pull off the upset.
But if Blough looks more like he did against Cincinnati—two touchdowns and five interceptions—it will likely be a field day for the Wisconsin defense and a long one for the fans in West Lafayette.
Earn the edge early?
Wisconsin has done a good job this season controlling games, as they lead the country in time of possession and have yet to trail by more than seven points. That has allowed the Badgers to rely on their potent run game and keep the ball out of the inconsistent hands of quarterbacks Alex Hornibrook and Bart Houston.
The Boilermakers have little chance of winning a ground-and-pound battle for field position, but if they can capitalize on a big play or turnover early in the game and take a lead, it could force Wisconsin out of its comfort zone offensively and potentially lead to more mistakes.
Even with a lead, the Boilermakers will need to focus on pushing the pace of the game and putting points on the board. The higher the final score, the better chance Purdue has of pulling off a season-defining upset.
Dictate the pace
Against a team that leads the nation in time of possession, letting them keep their offense on the field would seem to be playing into the opponent's hands. For the Boilermakers however, letting Wisconsin hold the ball could become advantageous.
An offense that controls the game when it's ahead can also be an offense that plods and struggles when it falls behind.
The longer Wisconsin’s drives take, the fewer they’ll have in the game, and if the Boilermakers can manage a stop in the red zone they should be able to stay within striking distance late in the game, when a quick touchdown could give them the lead without enough time for Wisconsin’s methodical offense to respond.
Wisconsin
Illinois round two
Last Saturday the Badgers entered Camp Randall looking to avoid mistakes, control the game and come away with an easy win against an overmatched opponent in Illinois. One week later the opponent and the venue have both changed, but the mission remains the same.
Last week's game was a textbook example of how to play as a heavy favorite, and Wisconsin should look to replicate that performance exactly. Start with an aggressive defense that forces three-and-outs and turnovers to give the offense a short field, a few key plays on offense to build the lead early, and close it out by running the ball to control the game and eat up the clock.
Wisconsin’s performance can effectively be graded on how close they get to last week’s marks in key areas like time of possession, rushing attempts and turnover margin.
Force Purdue to pass
Ask most offensive coordinators what they want to avoid in their offenses and the answer will be one-dimensionality. No matter how skilled the players, an offense that can only attack defenses through the air or on the ground will quickly be figured out.
Against a Purdue team that runs the ball only 30 times a game, fifth-lowest in the nation, the task for Wisconsin’s defense will not be so much to stop the run as to prevent it. If the Badgers can force Purdue into obvious passing situations on second and third down, it will unleash a pass rush that has only three sacks in its last three games and was held without a sack last weekend.
If Wisconsin can force Blough and his 16 interceptions to throw the ball repeatedly, there should be opportunities for safeties D’Cota Dixon, Leo Musso and the rest of the defense to replicate their four-interception performance against Illinois.
Early in the fourth quarter of their game against Georgia Stage this year, Wisconsin gave up a touchdown that put the Panthers up 17-13 with just over 11 minutes remaining in the contest.
The defense looked to be in disarray after allowing Georgia State to march 68 yards in just three plays, and the offense’s last drive had ended with an ugly interception by then-backup quarterback Alex Hornibrook. Rather than overreacting to the situation and asking Hornibrook to single-handedly lead the comeback, the Badgers stuck to their game plan and ran the ball five times on an eight-play touchdown drive that put them ahead for good.
Wisconsin may face a similar situation on Saturday, and whether it's falling behind unexpectedly, losing a player (or multiple) to injury or something else entirely, it will be on head coach Paul Chryst and the entire team to stay calm and not contribute to their own defeat.
