Following their first loss in the Big Ten at the hands of No. 17 Purdue, the No. 18 Wisconsin Badgers (2-1 Big Ten, 13-3 overall) return home to Madison to welcome a struggling Ohio State (0-3, 10-6) team that has yet to win a top-level matchup this season.
The Buckeyes got off to a relatively strong start to the year, coasting through their first five games into a date with then No. 6 Virginia. They led the Cavaliers by five points with just six minutes remaining, but coughed up the lead and eventually lost by two on the road.
Since that game, OSU has gone just 4-5, including an embarrassing home loss to 5-9 Florida Atlantic and a 0-3 start to conference play. To make matters worse, the Buckeyes recently lost arguably their most versatile player in junior forward Keita Bates-Diop for the season to surgery on an existing leg injury.
OSU relies heavily on junior forward Jae’Sean Tate to produce points, and he’ll likely find himself guarded by senior Badger forward Nigel Hayes. Hayes is an excellent on-ball defender, and should mitigate much of Tate’s scoring prowess.
Perhaps the toughest individual test will be for redshirt sophomore forward Ethan Happ, who will spend much of the night guarding 7-foot center Trevor Thompson. Happ has occasionally struggled against bigger players on the defensive end; Caleb Swanigan, Isaac Haas, Kennedy Meeks and Isaiah Hicks have all had field days against the undersized Badger big man.
That being said, Happ has shown no sign of slowing down against those same opponents on the offensive end. He played fine against North Carolina, did whatever he wanted against Indiana’s Thomas Bryant and nearly posted a 5-by-5 game in West Lafayette. And with Bates-Diop, Thompson’s primary replacement, gone for the year, Happ should once again be the focal point of the Badger offense.
Another area where UW should find success is behind the 3-point line. The Badgers shoot 3-pointers at a higher rate than 75 percent of the country, and the Buckeyes give up 3-pointers at a similarly high rate. When the defense collapses to help down low on Happ, players will be open on the perimeter, and Happ can find them.
When you double/triple team him, he is remarkable at finding the open man. And this happens: pic.twitter.com/IJ0Z1v7cMg
— Thomas Valtin-Erwin (@TommyValtin) January 7, 2017
OSU doesn’t have many effective shooters outside of junior guard Kam Williams, who has shot the ball at a 40.3 percent clip from behind the arc this season. If the Badgers can stop him from finding deep looks, it could be a rough night for the Buckeye offense.
The game tips off at 6 p.m. at the Kohl Center, where UW will look to avoid losing back-to-back regular-season conference games for just the second time in four years.
The Daily Cardinal Calculator gives the Badgers an 85.3 percent chance of winning.
