In its latest poll, the UW-Madison Elections Research Center found that Democratic nominee Joe Biden leads in three battleground states over incumbent President Donald Trump as the November Presidential election nears.
In partnership with the Wisconsin State Journal, the ERC utilized the YouGov polling service for its third edition of forecasting electoral patterns across Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Around 800 residents from each state participated in the study and the individual samples reflected the adult population based on age, gender, race and education.
All three states voted Republican in the 2016 election, but have traditionally voted Democratic going back to the 1980s, according to a UW-Madison news release.
Biden secured support from about half of the respondents across all three states, a feat Trump failed to achieve in 2016. However, Trump’s support hovered in the mid-40s, which reflects his current approval ratings and keeps him within distance of the former vice president.
Among registered voters, Biden leads Trump in Wisconsin by five points, and he also leads the president in Michigan and Pennsylvania by eight and five percentage points respectively. When the field narrowed to “likely voters,” Trump slightly closed the gap, but Biden stayed constant in polling around 50 percent.
The survey administered to respondents came as part of a broader panel study that tracked voter preferences from July 27 to Aug. 6. Participants were also reinterviewed in September.
Following the national party conventions, the ERC poll indicated the respondents became more decisive in who they planned to vote for. Trump improved slightly among Independent voters due to his response to violence in Kenosha after the shooting of Jacob Blake, the news release claims.
Overall, the voting preferences stayed stable between the two data collection points, with little voter movement between candidates.
The ERC also tracked what Biden and Trump voters thought were the most important problems facing the United States through 11 categories. Forty-seven percent of Biden voters selected the coronavirus pandemic as the number one problem as opposed to 13 percent of Trump voters.
Thirty-seven percent of Trump voters listed the economy as the number one issue, and another 24 percent said crime should be addressed the most. Other significant results from Biden supporters include climate change (14 percent) and inequality (13 percent).
In addition, the survey also showed a marginal decline in support for all three Democratic governors, though Michigan Gov. Gretchen maintained stronger support than Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf and Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers.
Ratings for Trump’s job performance remained “exceptionally stable,” according to the results. Trump polled well in his handling of the economy and saw a small uptick in support for his management of protests, though the majority indicated they are still dissatisfied.
The poll results were released just under a week before Biden and Trump will meet for their first presidential debate on Sept. 29.
