The University of Wisconsin-Madison football team will attempt to defend their home field Saturday as they will face their biggest challenge of the season yet: No. 4 University of Alabama.
What has to go right for the Badgers for them to have a legitimate shot against the Crimson Tide? Here’s what the team needs to secure a Badger win.
Wisconsin needs to epitomize Phil Longo’s air-raid offense
The Badgers’ offensive coordinator, Phil Longo, has been adamant about his strategy to form an air-raid offense, or an offense out of a shotgun formation that excels in gaining yardage by passing and receiving.
Wisconsin quarterback Tyler Van Dyke is known for his passing game. The senior transfer from Miami completed 2,703 passing yards last year. But in his first two games in a Wisconsin uniform, Van Dyke has a slightly lower 60.3% average completion rate. For Wisconsin to have a good shot against Alabama, Van Dyke’s average completion rate must hit the mid-60s range, aligning with what it has been in the past.
Van Dyke has quality wide receivers who will need to step up big time Saturday, more so than they have so far. Junior Will Pauling averaged just over 64 receiving yards per game last season but has only averaged 54 yards this season. Those extra ten yards could be the difference between a successful third-down conversion and having to punt the ball away. Trech Kekahuna and C.J. Williams are two other players that are in a position to contribute to the team’s air-raid success.
The Badgers must have an excellent third quarter
Statistically, Alabama has recently performed their worst in the third quarter. This season, the Crimson Tide has outscored their opponent 105-16. However, in the third quarter, they only outscored their opponent by 14-7. When excluding third-quarter play, Alabama has scored an average of 16.5 points and only allowed 1.5 points against opponents per quarter.
It isn't just this season that the third quarter is an outlier to their success. In the final three games of last year’s regular season, Alabama scored more than double the points their opponent did but only scored roughly 1.5 times as many in the third quarters.
That may not sound like a big difference, but Wisconsin must use any edge that they can over Alabama. In a game of inches, taking full advantage of this weakness can be the game’s difference.
Wisconsin must have excellent coverage of some of the best players in the country
Alabama running back Justice Haynes has averaged 74.5 rushing yards per game this season. Haynes rushed an 85-yard-long touchdown against Western Kentucky, the NCAAF’s longest rushing touchdown this season.
Running back Jam Miller, Haynes’ teammate, averages 98 rushing yards per game.
Ryan Williams, the Crimson Tide’s wide receiver, has three touchdowns on the season and averages 103.5 receiving yards per game and 34.5 yards per completion. Williams currently boasts the tenth-best receiving average in the country.
During last week’s 27-13 win against South Dakota, officials ejected Wisconsin's star linebacker Jake Chaney in the third quarter. This means Chaney will also have to miss the first half of this weekend’s game, adding to the importance of a strong defensive performance from the Badgers.
Safety Hunter Wohler has been a brick wall for the team, but he will need others to help stop Alabama’s talent.
The Badgers must have quality punt and kickoff returns
Wisconsin’s kick returner Trech Kekahuna has been inconsistent in punt and kickoff returns this season. Kekahuna gained just a total of 3 yards on two kickoff returns against Western Michigan.
But Kekahuna ran 62 yards on three kickoff returns against South Dakota, sparing his team from having to start their drive from deep in their own end with each of these three punts.
Kekahuna is clearly capable of returning the ball well, and he must be consistent against Alabama to give his team good field position. Additionally, if followed by a weak drive by the Badgers’ offense, a poor kickoff return could result in Wisconsin being forced to punt from deep in their own end, giving Alabama good field position.
Kekahuna's returns have implications beyond Wisconsin’s offensive positioning.
Wisconsin must take risks
Wisconsin won’t comfortably beat Alabama. Defeating this elite team requires making risky plays. Head Coach Luke Fickell made the call for the Badgers to attempt a fourth and goal play on Saturday against South Dakota, and it was just inches from the end zone. Wisconsin went on to win the game by two touchdowns, and Fickell’s decision was exactly what Wisconsin must be willing to do against Alabama.
Wisconsin can’t beat Alabama without attempting at least one risky play similar to the one against South Dakota. But with these five keys, they may just shock the country.
