After a week of key speakers, including former Republican U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney and Democratic U.S. Rep. Nancy Pelosi, the final day of the 8th annual Cap Times Idea Fest concluded with two election-related panels.
Two of Saturday’s five events — “Battleground Wisconsin: A Strategic View” and “What Will Happen on Election Day in Wisconsin and the Midwest?” — broke down Wisconsin’s key role as a battleground state and what lies ahead as both political parties gear up for the 2024 presidential election less than two months away.
Wisconsin party chairs talk political strategy and advantages
Political strategists from both sides of the aisle came together Saturday at Memorial Union to discuss Wisconsin politics and the state’s power as a swing state in the upcoming presidential election.
Panelists Ben Wikler, the chairman of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin, and Brian Schimming, the chairman for the Republican Party of Wisconsin, were present along with moderator and Cap Times reporter Erin McGroarty.
The two men agreed Wisconsin is a “purple state,” a reference to its political unpredictability. Both men believe their party has had an advantage over the other in Wisconsin.
McGroarty pointed out that former Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton did not campaign in Wisconsin during the 2016 presidential election, and both Wikler and Schimming agreed that was the reason she lost.
But in 2024, both presidential campaigns have made frequent stops to the state as the battle for the Oval Office heats up. Most recently, Vice President Kamala Harris visited Madison on Sept. 20 to garner support, and former President Donald Trump is expected to make a campaign stop in Prairie du Chien on Sept. 28.
Wikler enumerated the two things he said would change the election for Democrats: persuasion and turnout. He spoke about his work to mobilize Democrats to canvass and persuade neighbors to vote.
“They act like us, they believe like us, they live like us, but they don’t vote,” Wikler said.
Schimming believes his party has a real chance to turn Wisconsin red through motivating Republicans to vote early since more Democrats than Republicans tend to vote early or by mail. By bridging this gap, he said the Republican party could reach more voters.
“I was the first Republican chairman in the country to come out in favor of an early vote,” Schimming said.
Both parties are focused on motivating Wisconsinites to vote. On average, politicians spend $3 million on TV advertising per week in Wisconsin alone, according to Wikler.
Schimming said there is a lot of national attention on Wisconsin, which could motivate voters to vote for Trump. But recent polls show Harris leads Trump by seven points in Wisconsin.
Marquette poll holds insights into Wisconsin’s role in the 2024 presidential election
In addition to Wikler and Schimming, Charles Franklin, the director of the Marquette University Law School Poll, discussed Wisconsin’s role as a decider in the 2024 presidential election at Cap Times’ Idea Fest Saturday.
Franklin, a statistician by trade, has served as the director of the Marquette University Law School Poll since the organization was created in 2012. The Washington Post’sChief Political Correspondent Dan Balz and Columnist and Associate Editor Karen Tumulty joined Franklin to discuss how Dane County is a new player that could affect the swing of Wisconsin’s electoral college.
As the fastest growing county in the state, boasting 18% growth in the last ten years, Dane County is expected to play a more important role in the 2024 presidential election. While young people typically have more spotty voting habits, Franklin said this is not the case for Dane County.
“New people move into a place, they take a while to settle before they start voting. And young people take a while to fall into the habit,” Franklin said. “[Dane County] is just the opposite. Our turn out rates go up and up and up.”
Registration rates in Dane County’s school districts for people born in 2003 increased 41% in August, according to The Civic Center. Because of this, Dane County’s growth can no longer be overlooked when campaigning in Wisconsin, Franklin said.
Franklin explained polling results are always changing, and so are the people being polled. And while polls can provide insight into what voters may be thinking, Franklin clarified these polls do not predict the future.
“Hopefully ,things we say in the polls and show in the polls, especially about how people see the candidates and the issues, not just the horse race, can be informative,” Franklin said. “But my goodness, don’t decide your vote based on what the polls are showing.”
