Despite a nationwide shift right, Wisconsin performed the same as it had in the last two presidential elections: within one percentage point.
President-elect Donald Trump saw small gains by widening his edge in smaller counties and held his own in larger counties. Unlike the 2020 presidential election, Democrats were unable to replicate big shifts in the Madison and Milwaukee suburbs that had offset Trump’s rural gains, paving the way for President Joe Biden’s victory in Wisconsin.
Wisconsin’s 10 electoral votes gave Trump the 270 he needed to secure the presidency over Vice President Kamala Harris.
The Nov. 5 election marked the fifth time in the past seven presidential elections that Wisconsin was decided by less than a percentage point, and the seventh time in the past nine elections that the winning candidate for president received 50% of the vote in the state.
Here’s a county-by-county look at how both candidates performed in Wisconsin in the 2024 presidential election.
Harris underperformed in Wisconsin’s Democratic strongholds
While Harris held a considerable margin over Trump in Dane and Milwaukee counties by 38.5%, she performed marginally worse than Biden in both by 1.1%.
In Milwaukee County, Harris received 68.3% compared to Biden’s 69.4%, underperforming by roughly one percentage point, according to an independent data analysis from The Daily Cardinal.
NBC News reported Dane County was one of the seven counties that could decide the election. In the Democratic stronghold, Trump received 23.4% to Harris’ 75.1%, according to the Cardinal’s independent data analysis. Harris underperformed in the county by 0.4% compared to Biden’s 75.5% in 2020.
On University of Wisconsin-Madison campus wards, Harris underperformed by seven points compared to Biden in 2020, according to the Cardinal’s independent data analysis.
The ‘WOW’ counties continue to shift left
Milwaukee’s suburban communities, while historically Republican strongholds in statewide elections, have slowly trended toward Democrats in the 2016 and 2020 elections.
Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington counties — collectively referred to as Wisconsin’s “WOW” counties — are predominantly white and have voted for Republican candidates by margins upwards of 60% in every presidential election in the 21st century, according to state elections results archives.
In the 2024 election, Trump won all three counties by a comfortable margin — 19.7%, 10.5% and 36.3% for Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington counties, respectively — although Harris performed marginally better than Biden, making headway in these historically red counties, according to an independent data analysis from The Daily Cardinal.
Harris received 39.5%, 44.1% and 31.3% of the vote in Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington counties compared to Biden’s 38.9%, 43.3% and 30.3%.
There are many factors that could play a role in the suburban shifts seen in the last three presidential elections, including Trump’s authoritarian impulses and controversial rhetoric on immigrants and the economy, that could contribute to the increased Democratic support in the “WOW” counties.
The ‘BOW’ counties stay red despite the region trending less red in statewide elections
Brown, Outagamie and Winnebago counties make up Wisconsin’s “BOW” counties, home to a growing population center in the Fox Valley that includes cities like Green Bay and Appleton. In recent statewide elections, the region has trended less red.
The new 18th Senate District — made up of Appleton in Outagamie County and Menasha, Neenah and Oshkosh in Winnebago County — and the 53rd Assembly District — made up of Neenah, Menasha and part of Appleton — were top targets in the Democrats’ battle for more seats in the state Legislature.
While Democrats were unsuccessful in flipping the 53rd Assembly District seat, Democrats comfortably won the 18th Senate District with Democratic candidate Kristin Alfheim taking 53.3% of the vote to Republican candidate Anthony Phillips’ 46.7%. The district was one of five seats Democrats picked up, causing Senate Republicans to lose their supermajority.
Trump performed marginally better in all three counties, earning 53.1%, 54.4% and 51.7% in Brown, Outagamie and Winnebago counties compared to 2020’s 52.8%, 54.1% and 51%. Harris, on the other hand, performed similarly to Biden in the counties, according to the Cardinal’s independent data analysis.
While both Trump and Republican gubernatorial candidate Tim Michels performed well in the Outagamie County, the county notably swung in favor of liberal-leaning Wisconsin Supreme Court Justice Janet Protasiewicz in the spring 2023 election with 51.5% of the county’s vote going to her over conservative former Wisconsin Supreme Court Justice Dan Kelly.
Three of four battleground counties swing right
Sauk, Door, Vernon and Columbia are Wisconsin’s battleground counties, often swinging from election to election. In 2020, the counties went 50-50 — Sauk and Door for Biden and Vernon and Columbia for Trump.
In the 2024 election, Trump took three of the four battleground counties in Wisconsin — Sauk, Vernon and Columbia. Harris led Door County, a bellwether county that had accurately predicted the outcome of the last six presidential elections, by 2.3% with 99% of precincts reporting despite Trump ultimately winning the 2024 presidential election.
In addition to not accurately predicting the outcome of the election, Harris outperformed Biden by 1.4% in the county, according to the Cardinal’s independent data analysis.
Anna Kleiber is the state news editor for The Daily Cardinal. She previously served as the arts editor. Anna has written in-depth on elections, legislative maps and campus news. She has interned with WisPolitics and Madison Magazine. Follow her on Twitter at @annakleiber03.
