Sturgeon Bay, Wis. — Orange leaves litter the ground of Sturgeon Bay.
The drive up is a constant back-and-forth, with signs promoting Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump seemingly alternating down Wisconsin’s Highway 57.
Days before an election that could change everything, Door County, the northern Wisconsin county that has accurately predicted each of the last six presidential elections, is quiet. A light drizzle keeps most people inside, and the potential for a big Green Bay Packers win over the Detroit Lions at the Lambeau Field — less than an hour away — has TV sets tuned to FOX.
Wisconsin, which President Joe Biden won by just over 20,000 votes in 2020, will almost certainly be close again.
“I think in Door County, this election’s almost perfectly tied,” Chairman of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin, Ben Wikler, told 60 Minutes. “Whoever wins Door County on election day, probably wins the state of Wisconsin.”
The final Marquette Law School Poll gave Harris a slight edge over Trump among likely voters, 50% to 49%, and undecided voters, 48% to 47%. The poll’s director, Charles Franklin told The Washington Post top issues include the economy, immigration and abortion rights, and while “virtually all” Democratic respondents favor Harris, 13% of Republicans “expressed hesitation” about Trump.
Carlos Berrios, a Puerto Rican who came to Door County three years ago as a ship welder, and considers himself a Libertarian — identifying strongly with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — is voting for Trump despite remarks referring to Puerto Rico as a “floating island of garbage” by comedian Tony Hinchcliffe at a Trump rally in Madison Square Garden on Oct. 27.
Berrios believes conservative culture meshes well with Puerto Rican “family oriented” values and said immigration is a major concern swaying his vote.
“I have a lot of friends that tell me about their stories, and I think we should do something about it,” Berrios told The Daily Cardinal. “I don't think we should be letting everybody walk through the border like that.”
Berrios added his general dislike of Harris contributed to his choice to vote for Trump. Berrios said he considers Harris a globalist, which he calls the “new communism.”
“I know a lot of people from Cuba… they tell me these stories about what communism does in the end, how it starts, they tell me ‘you guys are going the same way,’” Berrios said.
Whilehis support for Trump led to “a lot of pushback” from Puerto Rican friends, Berrios said he’s found his community in Door County.
“It feels like home. Everybody's friendly, everybody says hi when they walk by,” Berrios said. “That's not something you say in a big city.”
Too close to call
In and around Sturgeon Bay’s Historic Third Avenue, business owners, employees and residents all agree: the race to win Door County is extremely close.
“50% of Door County is Republican, the other 50 is Democratic,” said 18-year-old Parker Gallagher, who plans to work toward becoming a registered nurse after graduating high school. “Most people in my school are Republican, because most of them are country kids, so they love Trump and think that Trump is the best.”
Still, Gallagher thinks Door County is “an open community.” The high school senior, whose moms are part of the LGBTQ+ community, told the Cardinal that almost 1,000 people showed up to a June Pride festival in Sturgeon Bay. Gallagher is still worried his mom’s marriage will become illegal if Trump wins and Project 2025 — which promotes the formation of “stable, married, nuclear families” over “agenda items” including “LGBTQ+ equity” — is implemented.
“They want to vote for Kamala so they can stay married and not be ridiculed,” Gallagher said.
Judy, who has lived in Door County for 23 years, voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020 and is voting for him again in 2024, more because of her connection to the Republican Party than the candidate himself. But she told the Cardinal she’s noticed a Harris lean in the county.
While there are active groups speaking out about who they’re voting for, most people don’t want to debate each other on politics, she said.
“That’s what politics should be,” Judy said. “I don’t believe you should be unfriendly just because you have different [political affiliations].”
It’s for just that reason Mario Micheli, who co-owns Clario Farmstead Pasta with his wife, Claire, called Door County a “unique place.”
“I think people are generally respectful enough to just let the election speak for itself, rather than yelling at people about how they're going to do it,” Micheli said.
But people still chat, Micheli said. After Trump supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, Micheli recalled friends saying they never would have voted for the former president had they known the potential consequences. Micheli said ” he’s noticed fewer Trump signs and flags than 2020 despite strong support for Republican Wisconsin State Assemblyman Joel Kitchens.
“There's obviously the hardcore [Trump] voters,” Micheli said. “But it makes me wonder: this time around, maybe they're not going that way. It's all anecdotal, but it just seems to me like there's just not that much kind of fervent support for Trump this time around.”
Down the street, at a department store aptly named “The Marketplace,” Lance Brolin, an employee at Bliss, one of the shops at the outlet, said he believes there is a Harris lean in Door County too. While Trump’s signage is often larger in size, scale and quantity of signs, Brolin told the Cardinal there are “definitely” a lot of Harris and Democratic candidate signage.
And he’s not only relying on his eyes.
“My FedEx guy told me that,” Brolin said.
Most people keep to themselves
In a bright green house that was once a parsonage of the Hope Congregational Church, Phil Sweet sinks into a dark brown couch to watch the Sunday lineup of NFL games while his wife Sharon talks on the phone.
Phil and Sharon Sweet
The couple, who have lived in Door County for 55 years, said they’ve noticed much more fanfare for Harris than Trump in the county and noted that support for other Republican candidates, such as Kitchens, by neighbors is followed by a lack of support for Trump.
Phil, who thinks Trump can “be labeled a fascist,” said he’s concerned about abortion rights and democracy, but hasn’t noticed election denialism trickle into Door County after 2020. Sharon’s not convinced Trump will take a loss rolling over.
“My concern is that Trump will win, and if he doesn't win, he's not going to accept losing,” Sharon said. “I'm worried that there'll be some sort of a violent, if not violent, at least not a happy situation with the Trump movement. I hope that doesn’t happen.”
But the Sweets agree that Door County’s community, which they describe as “Midwestern nice,” is not in danger of violence, especially because most people keep their political views to themselves.
“We just talk about other things,” Sharon said.
And the Packers seem to be the talk of the town. On Sunday, the Lions snapped Green Bay’s four-game winning streak in dominant fashion, notching a pick-6 off Packer quarterback Jordan Love en route to a 24-14 victory. Today, Door County will likely be much closer.
Yet despite the controversy, closeness and drama election night may bring, one sign shares a message all of Door County can agree on: “The Bears still suck.”
Managing Editor Ava Menkes contributed reporting to this article.
Tomer Ronen is the Features Editor for the Daily Cardinal. He has covered protests, state politics, sports and more. Follow him on Twitter at @TRonen22.
