The re-election of former President Donald Trump has sent shockwaves throughout the world — particularly in East Asia, where the United States has long-standing security commitments and a geopolitical rival in China.
Before the U.S presidential election, the University of Wisconsin-Madison’s Center for East Asian Studies (CEAS) hosted a panel exploring the impacts of the election on East Asia, where panelists said a second Trump administration would be more unpredictable and could shift the U.S.’s approach to alliances.
The panel, hosted on Oct. 29 featured CEAS Associate Director David Fields, Professor John Ohnesorge and Professor Louise Young. All three panelists agreed the first Trump administration and the incumbent Biden-Harris administration had a relatively consistent stance toward alliances with East Asian countries, particularly Japan and Korea.
“It's not like we're going from some golden age to something really new,” Ohnesorge said, pointing to a transition from Biden to Trump. “I think everybody's been kind of rough on our allies in the region for quite a while.”
Ohnesorge cited recent U.S. policies under the Biden administration, such as the CHIPS Act, that increased pressure on allies in East Asia and were often drafted without consulting them.
But Ohnesorge said a Trump victory meant a return to “the bumpy, bumpy stuff before,” and panelists said his second term could also see a return to his earlier policies, such as raising tariffs and introducing trade measures.
The first Trump administration's approach differed from Biden in execution, with Biden focusing on collaborative support, and Trump emphasizing financial contributions, a transactional approach that could characterize Trump's second term, Ohnsesorge said.
Fields said South Koreans favored Harris over Trump due to concerns about alliance costs and stability, and Young said Trump’s past history of reducing collective defense commitments caused concern in Japan.
CEAS director and professor of Japanese Steven Ridgely moderated the event and asked panelists about the long-term impacts of a second Trump term.
Young and Ohnesorge said there would be minimal impact on the U.S.’s China's policy, which is the main driver of regional dynamics.
Fields amended their answer, adding “the stakes are quite a bit higher,” and U.S.-China relations are “heavily dependent on what kind of decisions come out of China in the next 20 or 30 years.”
After Ridgely opened up the conversation to the audience, some attendees asked whether the shifting alliances could diminish American power in East Asia.
“Alliances are, by definition, temporary,” Fields said. “I don't think American power is declining, but I think it could very rapidly because I think the core of American power in the world is allies. Without allies, the United States is just a hyper-capable regional power.”
