The University of Wisconsin System is bracing for challenges in maintaining steady enrollment as declining birth rates begin to impact higher education institutions nationwide.
Though immigration has allowed Wisconsin’s population to remain steady, universities across the state are preparing for a shrinking pool of prospective students, as fewer high school graduates are projected in the coming years. The birth rate in Wisconsin has fallen by nearly 22% over the past three decades, reflecting a nationwide trend of fewer births.
The decline, driven by economic uncertainty, cultural shifts and changing family dynamics, is expected to reduce the number of high school graduates entering college in the coming years.
Over the past two decades, teen birth rates in Wisconsin plummeted by more than 60%, another key contributor to the lower birth rate. This decline mirrors a national trend accredited to better access to contraception and sex education.
Despite a 0.5% increase in systemwide enrollment in 2024 — the first since 2014 — and a 3% increase in freshman enrollment at UW-Madison, the percentage of Wisconsin high school graduates enrolling in college immediately after leaving high school is also decreasing. This trend has already begun to impact college enrollment rates across the state.
UW System, which includes 13 universities and 13 branch campuses, has seen enrollment drop by more than 10% since 2010. With fewer college-age students, the trend is expected to continue, especially like UW-Platteville and UW-Stevens Point, which rely heavily on in-state students.
“My hope is that with working with the Legislature, the executive branch and the business community, we can come up with ways to help Wisconsin address the demographic challenge that it faces and not accept that as our reality,” UW System President Jay Rothman said in an interview last week.
While many universities in the system are struggling with declining enrollment, UW-Madison has managed to maintain strong student numbers, largely thanks to its national reputation and its ability to attract out-of-state and international students. UW-Madison’s enrollment has grown slightly in recent years, enrolling its second-largest freshman class in 2024.
Declining enrollment poses financial challenges for the system, as tuition revenue remains a key funding source. Smaller student populations could lead to budget deficits, reductions in academic programs and potential staff cuts. Some UW campuses have already faced closure.
Beyond higher education, declining birth rates raise concerns for Wisconsin’s workforce. A shrinking pool of young workers entering the labor market could exacerbate existing labor shortages in key industries, including manufacturing, health care and agriculture — sectors that are crucial to the state’s economy.
Wisconsin’s state labor force growth has slowed dramatically since 2020, with retirements outpacing new entries into the job market. This trend could hinder economic growth and strain businesses seeking to fill critical positions. Without enough workers, companies may be forced to relocate, automate or scale back operations, which would further impact the state’s economy.
