The No. 11 Wisconsin Badgers men’s basketball team earned a colossal victory over No. 13 Purdue on Saturday.
Trailing by one at the half, the Badgers stormed back and ran away with the game in the second half, winning 94-84. Breakout guard John Tonje brought the fire, earning Big Ten Player of the Week and Naismith Trophy Player of the Week honors after he dropped 32 points last weekend. It was their first road victory over the Boilermakers since 2022 and is a huge confidence-booster for the Badgers as the regular season nears a close.
Then, Wisconsin dominated Illinois 95-74 in front of a ruckus crowd at the Kohl Center on Tuesday night. It was their first win over the Fighting Illini since 2019, snapping a nine-game losing streak. Tonje had a phenomenal performance yet again, scoring 31 points in the blowout. He became just the fourth player in Wisconsin men’s basketball history to score 30+ points in consecutive games.
The Badgers are cruising, Tonje is draining buckets effortlessly and head coach Greg Gard’s squad has now won five games in a row.
Wisconsin is now 11-4 in conference play and third in the Big Ten standings. They sit behind Michigan (12-2) and Michigan State (12-3), who play each other on Friday. The top four teams in the conference automatically earn a spot in the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals, so the final stretch of the regular season is immensely important for the Badgers. The better the finish, the higher the odds are of Wisconsin earning a premier seed in the NCAA Tournament in March.
As it stands right now, Wisconsin is ranked 11th in the nation and is a projected No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Division I Men’s Basketball Selection Committee revealed its initial top 16 teams on Saturday, with Wisconsin earning the No. 3 seed in the South region. Among the top four programs placed in the South are Auburn at No. 1, Texas A&M at No. 2 and Texas Tech at No. 4. The selection committee revealed this bracket prior to the Purdue game, so it has not accounted for Wisconsin’s win. The Badgers will find out their official seed on Selection Sunday on March 16.
With five games to go in the regular season and the Big Ten Tournament looming on the horizon, the Badgers need to finish strong to secure a top seed in March Madness. They have two games at the Kohl Center before hitting the road to take on No. 14 Michigan State, arguably their biggest game of the season. If Wisconsin can take care of business down the stretch, there is a chance they can earn a No. 2 seed in March.
Seeding is much more important in the tournament than most people realize. Bracketodds, a website created by students at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, researches and analyzes each seed’s performance in the NCAA Tournament since its expansion to 64 teams in 1985. Bracketodds found the top three seeds dominate the tournament historically, having won the National Championship 87.2% of the time.
Obviously, a school’s odds of advancing far in the tournament are better for higher seeds. A No. 1 seed historically makes it to the Final Four 39.7% of the time. That percentage is cut in half for No. 2 seeds, who make it that far 20.5% of the time. It is cut in half yet again for No. 3 seeds, who only make it to the Final Four 10.9% of the time. Earning a No. 2 seed in the tournament would significantly boost Wisconsin’s odds of making a deep run, so this last leg of the season will be as crucial as ever for the Badgers.
Wisconsin’s initial placement as a No. 3 seed is very encouraging. Their statement win over Purdue put the rest of the NCAA on notice. They finally overcame their demons against Illinois.
But the job is not finished.
It’s the endgame of the 2024-25 season. The race for the Big Ten crown is heating up, and Selection Sunday is less than a month away.
The Badgers are getting hot at the right time, and they’ll need to ride this momentum down the stretch and set themselves up in the best spot possible for March Madness.
