Three top East Asian studies professors discussed the trajectory of United States.-China relations under President Donald Trump’s second term at a seminar March 6, saying conflict between the two countries is not “imminent” but the U.S. was on track to escalate tensions.
The event, hosted by the Alexander Hamilton Society, a nonpartisan student organization that hosts political discussions on campus, featured University of Wisconsin-Madison political science professors Terence Roehrig and David Fields who were joined by John Hopkins University professor Steven David.
The conversation centered around U.S. foreign policy towards China, which professors said was often counterproductive and not rooted in U.S. interests — such as the U.S. withdrawal from the Trans Pacific Partnership and recent export restrictions on Chinese semiconductors. Fields highlighted the need for “sensible changes” to the U.S. approach, though he said there was little indication that would happen.
“If you talk to anyone in Washington, they will say it's a non-starter, because they think the American people wouldn't support [amicable policy],” Fields said.
He views Washington's insistence toward being “hard” on China as primarily out of fear of being perceived as “weak” by the American public.
“When being weak is the driver of policy, rather than what is truly in the national interest, then I think we are in real danger of not getting off this road to confrontation,” Fields said.
The professors also discussed the U.S.’s longstanding policy of “strategic ambiguity” towards Taiwan and whether that was sustainable in the future.
Roehrig said Taiwanese independence was a “very serious flashpoint” for relations between the U.S. and China and underlined how the status quo was being shaken by recent events, such as the removal of the phrase “we do not support Taiwan independence” from the State Department website — a move which sparked a strong rebuttal from China’s Foreign Ministry. He highlighted the change was a disruption to longstanding U.S. policy.
The U.S. supports Taiwan as a self-governing body through a “robust unofficial relationship” and meetings with key senators in recent years, according to the U.S. Department of State website.
The professors said this change and former President Joe Biden's repeated statements the U.S. would defend Taiwan — though they were later walked back by the White House — alludes to a slow yet pointed shift in the U.S.’ philosophy on Taiwanese relations.
This new position is one all three professors said puts the U.S. in a much less “strategically ambiguous” posture, potentially heightening tensions in the region through increased intervention.
On a more fundamental level, David spoke of the ideological and political barriers that divide the U.S. and China. Beyond economic differences, he said the biggest barrier to smooth relations was the U.S.’ aggressive position on Chinese products and companies.
“We have a Congress that can't agree on renaming the post office, but they can agree that we all hate the Chinese,” David said
This aggressive crackdown of Chinese products like Tiktok and Huawei — when viewed through the lens of Chinese citizens and government — takes on a much more charged connotation.
“It's not the behavior that's the problem, but the fact that they're Chinese…and these are efforts to hurt the Chinese economy in their mind,” Fields said.
In addition to America’s policy on China, David expressed concern about the Trump administration’s recent shift on Ukrainian policy after a contentious meeting between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy last week.
David said Trump’s turn on Ukraine might embolden China’s President Xi Jinping to take decisive action on Taiwan.
“I grew up in a world where America always took the side of democracies against autocracies, took the side of countries that sought to defend themselves,” David said. “That world seems not to be in evidence today.”
