After their disposition of UCLA in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten Tournament, the Badgers will attempt to win their third straight game in a three-day span against Michigan State on Saturday. With a win, Wisconsin would advance to their second consecutive Big Ten Championship game.
The Badgers did not show any fatigue from playing back-to-back days in their 86-70 win over UCLA on Friday and tied a Big Ten Tournament record with 19 3-pointers made. Michigan State is coming off a 74-64 quarterfinal victory over Oregon and will be the fresher team, having played one less game than the Badgers.
Wisconsin’s sole matchup against Michigan State this year came near the end of the regular season, a 71-62 loss in East Lansing. Just like with UCLA, the Badgers will try to avoid going 0-2 on the year against their opponent.
In that loss, Wisconsin had an uncharacteristically poor shooting performance, hitting five of their 32 attempts from deep and shooting 33.8% from the floor as a whole. If they want to avoid a repeat, they will need to make their shots early to establish a rhythm.
Michigan State’s elite defense most likely played a role in those poor shooting numbers. The Spartans are second in the Big Ten in defensive rating and fifth in the nation in KenPom’s and Torvik’s defensive efficiency ratings. Their 3-point defense is even better, allowing the third-lowest 3-point percentage in the country.
Fortunately for the Badgers, the Spartans don’t just limit their opponent’s 3s, they are by far the worst 3-point shooting team in the Big Ten and are in the bottom 25 in all of college basketball. It’s likely that the game will not be decided behind the arc as Michigan State essentially neutralizes the three ball in their games.
Again, Wisconsin will be facing a deep team, and Michigan State takes that to an even higher degree than UCLA. Their leading scorer, Jaden Akins, only puts up 12.9 points per game. But, the Spartans have nine players averaging at least 5.0 points per game and run a 10-man rotation.
From 3-point range, the Spartans’ dangerous players are Jase Richardson and Jeremy Fears Jr. They shoot 38.8% and 40.0% from behind the arc, respectively, and are really the only two to consistently worry about in that area of the game. While anyone can get hot, and Jaden Akins did in the previous matchup, nobody else in the rotation shoots better than 34% from three.
Michigan State gets most of their work done near the basket, whether that means shooting mid-range jumpers, driving to the rim for layups or drawing fouls. The Spartans get to the line frequently and make their shots from the stripe. They are second in the Big Ten in free throw percentage and free throw attempts, and the Badgers will need to avoid getting in foul trouble to get the win.
If Wisconsin shoots the ball like they did against UCLA, they should be able to get the victory – but that is easier said than done.
An area that the Badgers should look to exploit is the turnover battle. Michigan State commits the fifth-most turnovers per game in the Big Ten, while Wisconsin only has the second-lowest turnover rate in the conference. Neither team steals the ball often, so scoring points off turnovers when they occur will be important.
The Spartans are similar to UCLA but are superior to the Bruins in all of their strengths. They are deeper and better defensively, and they hit their free throws. The Badgers might have made it look easy against UCLA, but it will likely be a close, defensive battle in the upcoming semifinal matchup.
With a win, the Badgers will advance to the Big Ten Championship game for a second consecutive year and will try to take home their first conference tournament championship since the 2014-15 season.
