Wisconsin will take on UCLA in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten Tournament following their second-round victory over Northwestern on Thursday. The teams met once in the regular season and the Badgers will try to avenge their 85-83 road loss in Indianapolis on Friday.
UCLA enters the Big Ten Tournament coming off of two straight victories and looks to improve on their possible NCAA Tournament seeding during the conference tournament. They earned a double bye as the four-seed after the Badgers failed to win their final game of the regular season. Unlike Northwestern, UCLA will receive an at-large bid and Wisconsin will be up against a much stronger opponent in the quarterfinals.
UCLA’s success this season largely comes from their defense, sporting the third-best defensive efficiency in the Big Ten. The Bruins lead the conference in steals at 8.2 per game, with Kobe Johnson leading the team with 1.7 steals per contest. Johnson is their defensive anchor and has been a huge factor in their proficiency on that end of the court.
The Bruins’ offensive strength is their depth — they do not have a true star player on the team. Tyler Bilodeau, their leading scorer, averages just 14.0 points per game. Only one other player on the team scores in double figures, Eric Dailey Jr., who puts up 12.0 points per game.
Yet seven players on the team score more than 6.0 points per game, highlighted by their sixth man, Sebastian Mack. Mack is the Bruins’ third-leading scorer and gets to the free-throw line more than anyone else on the team, crucial for when their offense stalls out.
But as a team UCLA struggles to get to the free-throw line, and when they get there, they do not shoot them very well. The Bruins take the fourth-lowest number of free throws in the conference and shoot them at a 70.5% clip, which is the third-worst mark in the Big Ten.
The Badgers will need to capitalize off of the free throw talent discrepancy between the two teams, as they shoot around 13% better at the stripe than the Bruins. Throughout most of the season, Wisconsin has led the entire country in free throw percentage and is still on track to set the all-time single-season record in that statistic.
It will be important for the Badgers to control the pace of play, considering UCLA plays at a slow speed. The Bruins limit opponent field goal attempts at an elite rate, and as mentioned before, are skilled at creating turnovers. If Wisconsin is having a cold shooting day, the game could get out of hand quickly with the lack of scoring opportunities to make up a possible deficit.
In spite of that, the previous matchup between the two was a track meet, with both teams shooting above 50% and getting to the free throw line with ease. Based on the way UCLA plays, it would be unlikely for the game to take place in a similar way, and it would favor the Badgers’ potent offense if it were to happen again.
If the Badgers lock in defensively and limit UCLA’s biggest offensive weapons, they should be able to come away with a win. But these two teams are almost evenly matched, and it will probably reflect in the way tomorrow’s game plays out.
If Wisconsin wins, they will advance to the semifinals of the Big Ten Tournament and strengthen their longshot case for a two-seed in March Madness.
