The Wisconsin men’s basketball team will take on the Montana Grizzlies in Denver in the first round of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament on Thursday. Wisconsin is the No. 3 seed in the East Regional, while Montana is the region’s No. 14 seed after winning the Big Sky Tournament on Saturday.
Montana is an extremely efficient team, ranked second in the country in field goal percentage at 50.2%. Their offense has carried them all season long and is rated in the top 100 in various metrics like KenPom and Torvik, impressive for a Big Sky team.
Money Williams is the Grizzlies’ leading scorer, an inefficient shooter but capable of going off on any given night. Williams had 36 points in Montana's regular-season finale against Portland State. He also put up 30 points in their loss to Tennessee in November, proving that he can score against high-major defenders.
Malik Moore is the Grizzlies’ second-leading scorer, putting up 12.8 points per game. Moore is an effective 3-point shooter at 41.1% and the Badgers will need to limit his opportunities to prevent Montana from keeping it close.
Joe Pridgen is Montana’s most efficient player from the floor, shooting the ball at 63.6% on the season. Pridgen is also their leading rebounder at 6.9 boards per game despite his 6-foot-5 size.
Montana primarily scores as a team with six players averaging at least nine points per game. Williams only puts up 13.3 points per game, showing that they do not have a true star player, which makes them a dangerous matchup if Wisconsin lets too many players get into a shooting rhythm.
The Grizzlies are a good 3-point shooting team with four players that consistently hit 3s. Te’Jon Sawyer, Austin Patterson and Brandon Whitney all shoot above 38% from behind the arc along with Moore.
While Montana might have a successful offense, their poor defense has held them back all year. Their lack of size has played a role in their defensive struggles and Sawyer is their only key player taller than 6-foot-7. The Badgers will need to exploit Montana’s small size with their two 7-footers, Steven Crowl and Nolan Winter.
Defensively the Grizzlies do not do anything well — they are poor rebounders, do not rack up a lot of steals and foul a lot — and the Badgers’ high-octane offense should be able to perform as they have for most of the season.
Montana’s biggest weakness is giving up offensive rebounds and is an area where the Badgers will have a significant advantage. Crowl and Winter should be able to keep possessions alive because of their height advantage, and a good day on the glass for the Badgers will largely improve their chances of coming away with a blowout victory.
In the Big Ten championship the Badgers shot 22.1% from the floor and 17.9% from 3-point range, one of their worst performances of the season. After playing four games in four straight days, fatigue likely caught up with the team. With three days of rest, the Badgers should be fresh for their first-round matchup in Denver.
Wisconsin should be able to win as long as they aren’t completely cold on offense, and behind their star guards John Tonje and John Blackwell, they should be able to put up enough points to stop Montana from completing the upset.
There is a substantial talent differential between the Big Ten and Big Sky, and the Badgers will essentially just need to show up to win the game. But anything can happen in March, and we’ve seen many bigger upsets in the past. Wisconsin cannot overlook Montana as they go for a deep tournament run.
With a win, the Badgers will face the winner of the matchup between the No. 6 seed BYU and the No. 11 seed VCU in the second round.
